Electric bus sales grew by 30% in 2024

Global sales of electric buses reached more than 70 000 in 2024, driven by renewed growth in China. Sales outside of China increased by just 5% in 2024, although they have almost tripled compared to 2020. As electric bus sales have increased in a range of countries, China’s share of global sales has fallen from around 99% in 2017 to less than 70% in 2024. Although electric bus sales in China generally declined from 2017 to 2023, the electric bus sales share has remained relatively stable, hovering around 60%. 

In Europe, the world’s second-largest market for electric buses, sales increased by almost 15% in 2024, bringing the sales share to more than 13%. Several countries, including Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Norway, now have electric bus sales shares of more than 40%. The United Kingdom continues to have the largest number of sales in Europe, accounting for around 20% of the region’s sales in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 40% and almost 2 000 electric buses sold in 2024. Italy follows, with almost 1 200 sales, and then Germany with almost 900. Sales were predominantly for city buses, for which ten European countries had battery electric sales shares above 80%, meaning almost half of all new city buses were battery electric in 2024, up from just over 35% in 2023.

Uptake of electric buses in the United States has not been linear. Despite averaging year-on-year growth of more than 70% between 2020 and 2024, electric bus sales declined in 2024 following a peak the previous year. Around 40% fewer electric buses were sold last year, in part due to supply chain issues. As a result, India and Korea overtook the United States to become the second- and third-largest national electric bus markets by sales volume in 2024, with more than 3 200 and 2 800 sales, respectively.

In Latin America, electric bus sales have risen from around 600 in 2020 to over 2 000 in 2024, which accounts for almost 40% of sales outside of China, Europe, and the countries mentioned above. City buses are driving the transition, like in Europe. In Mexico, close to 8% of all bus sales were electric in 2024, up from just above 1% in 2023. There has also been impressive growth in Colombia, Chile, Brazil, and other countries over the past few years. 

Another notable trend is the decline in the share of PHEVs among electric buses. In China, the share of PHEVs in total electric bus sales peaked in 2014 at around 60%, but fell to less than 1% in 2017 and close to 0% in 2024. Similarly, in the rest of the world, there was a peak of around 60% of total electric bus sales in 2015, but this fell sharply to 5% in 2017, and around 1% of the share in 2024. Almost all electric bus sales are now battery electric, thanks in large part to declining battery prices, greater model availability and improved charging technology, all of which increase the share of use cases for which they are now practical.

Even as electric bus economics continue to improve, innovative financing and incentives help drive deployment

Innovative financing models, such as those available in the United Kingdom, Brazil (São Paulo), and Chile (Santiago), are also helping to drive up sales. In Santiago, for example, buses have been leased to the operator as opposed to traditional ownership, lowering the upfront cost, which can present a significant barrier to deployment. The scheme benefitted from investment by the International Finance Corporation (IFC). A similar model is being explored for collaboration between the IFC and Transvolt in India to help deploy 8 000 battery electric buses.

Italy, which now has the highest number of electric bus sales in the European Union, more than doubled its stock from 2023 to 2024, with growth fuelled by incentives totalling EUR 50 million made available in July 2022. As in other countries, the majority of electric bus registrations are intended for urban use. In Milan, for example, the municipal public transport operator, ATM, has committed to having a 100% electric fleet by 2030.

In the United States, uptake has been greatest for school buses, which represented around half of the electric bus stock in 2024. As of mid-June, the Clean School Bus Program had funded approximately 8 100 electric school buses, using approximately USD 3 billion of the USD 5 billion allocated for fiscal years 2022-2026 under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Oakland, California, became the first school district in the United States to have a fully electric fleet in 2024. This contrasts starkly with the experience of New York City, which has a legally binding target to fully electrify its fleet of 10 000 buses by 2035, yet has deployed under 50 to date, partly due to difficulties in negotiating affordable purchases.

India has seen rapid growth in electric bus deployment since 2020, with stock increasing from less than 3 000 to more than 11 500 at the end of 2024. A combination of increasingly favourable economics, available incentives and additional government support for charging infrastructure has enabled huge year-on-year growth. Demand has been boosted by schemes such as the National Electric Bus Programme, which targets deploying a further 40 000 electric buses by 2027, helping to generate large orderbooks and use aggregated procurement to drive down costs. This is further strengthened by new schemes such as PM E-DRIVE, which could support sales of a further 14 028 electric buses, with preference given to replacements of old public buses. The forthcoming Bharat Urban Megabus Mission aims to introduce 100 000 electric buses to cities with a population of over 1 million.

China’s electric bus sales strengthen, but Chinese OEMs are also focusing on exports

China has the world’s highest stock share of electric buses, at 30%, compared to 2% across Europe (the second-largest electric bus fleet), and this share has been steadily growing over the past decade. The country took an early lead in deploying electric buses, with almost 70% of the more than 680 000 electric buses in the country today having been deployed before 2020. The year 2024 saw an increase in electric bus sales following several years of decline, potentially reflecting the replacement of older electric buses in cities such as Shenzhen, which fully electrified their bus fleets years ago. The introduction of a national-level city bus scrappage scheme announced in January 2025 looks likely to further support the uptick in sales seen in 2024.

Chinese manufacturers have also been increasingly looking to exports to exploit their available manufacturing capacity. In 2024, more than 15 000 electric buses were exported from China, over 25% more than in 2023. BYD and Foton are some of China’s leading manufacturers of electric buses, and together with other Chinese manufacturers supplied more than 80% of electric buses in Latin America's stock. In early 2025, the city of Tashkent, Uzbekistan, signed a purchase agreement for 2 000 BYD buses, 1 000 of which are set to be delivered by the end of the year. Chinese OEM Yutong has also seen success internationally, fulfilling orders in Greece, Italy and the United Kingdom, and solidifying their position as Europe’s best-selling electric bus brand for the third year in a row. Yutong has already supplied fleets to places as diverse as Chile, Mexico, Norway and Uzbekistan since 2020. In Qatar, 70% of the public bus fleet was electrified between 2021 and 2023 through a partnership with Yutong, supporting the government’s aim for all of its public transport buses to be electric by 2030. The Qatari government has also made plans for domestic production of electric buses in partnership with Yutong, with the aim of establishing a production hub for electric buses to serve international markets including Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as meeting growing local demand. 

New incentives help China strengthen its lead as overall progress stalls in Europe and the United States

Sales of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks grew for the third consecutive year in 2024 to exceed 90 000 worldwide. Year-on-year growth was almost 80%, a stark contrast to the decline in sales seen between 2018 and 2021. This spurt was largely a result of Chinese sales more than doubling between 2023 and 2024 – more than 80% of all electric trucks sold globally in 2024 were sold in China.

Strong growth in China was spurred in part by a vehicle scrappage scheme including purchase incentives, which is being renewed in 2025. Falling battery prices and the introduction of tighter emission standards for trucks issued in July 2023 further accelerated the shift. Pressure on heavy industries to reduce emissions is also translating into deployment of electric trucks, especially in heavily industrialised areas such as Hebei Province, where the fleet of electric trucks reached 30 000 vehicles.

In 2024, Europe saw more than 10 000 electric trucks sold for the second year in a row, despite a lack of substantial incentives. Denmark, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and others saw significant growth, though this was partially offset by drops in electric truck sales in key markets such as France and the Netherlands.

In the United States, electric truck sales in 2024 were similar to in 2023. Nevertheless, the number of electric trucks sold in 2024 – over 1 700 – was more than the cumulative number of electric trucks sold in the country between 2015 and 2022. Electric truck sales in the United States were supported by a tax credit of up to USD 40 000, as well as project grants for vehicle purchases, charging infrastructure and other expenses through the nearly USD 1 billion Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicles Grant Program.

There were positive developments elsewhere in the world, such as in Brazil, where almost 500 electric trucks were sold in 2024, and in Canada, with almost 2 000 sales for the second year in a row. In addition, Japan, South Africa and Thailand saw their collective sales jump from around 130 to almost 900 between 2023 and 2024. India saw a decline in electric truck sales in 2024, but in September the PM E-DRIVE scheme allocated a budget of USD 58 million for purchase incentives for electric trucks over the next 2 years.

Certain niches are quickly being electrified, including in the heavy freight segment

Deployment of electric trucks varies by application, as some duty cycles are more suited to electrification than others. Cycles with combinations of lower daily mileage, lower speeds, and predictable routes are typically easier to electrify, as seen at Manhattan Beer, which has begun to electrify its fleet. In California, drayage – the transport of shipping containers over a short distance to their final destination – has lent itself to the adoption of electric trucks. Across the United States, yard tractors have also proven to be an early adopter.

Similarly, in India, UltraTech Cement have ordered 100 electric trucks to decarbonise a 400 km route between two of their operations, and orders for 180 electric trucks from Billion E-Mobility (including 45 with a gross vehicle weight of 55 tonnes) have spurred Ashok Leyland to increase their production capacity. In China, successful battery swapping trials have supported an increase in electric trucks in the concrete industry.

Efforts to switch to electric trucks for delivery services are also spurring uptake and trials of new heavy truck models, where high mileages increase the potential cost benefits of electrification. In California, DHL recently tested the prototype of the Tesla Semi, which is expected to enter production in 2026, while in Germany, DHL deployed two Mercedes eActros 300s. Similarly, Amazon signed an order for more than 200 Mercedes eActros-600 electric trucks, which will be deployed in the United Kingdom and Germany with the goal of decarbonising high-mileage predictable routes, on which charging can be planned with a high degree of certainty. These trends indicate that certain niches will become cost-competitive in advance of the segment at large.

The number of electric heavy-duty models available worldwide has continued to grow steadily, driven by increasing demand as battery costs have declined. The market with the most models available remains China, with almost 450 – more than half of which are electric buses. In the United States, over 140 models are available, around half of which are medium-duty truck models, while buses represent less than 30%. The prevalence of medium-duty models in the US market could suggest that fleet operators are prioritising the electrification of lower-cost vehicles that cover shorter routes before transitioning to long-haul applications. In Europe, there are about 150 electric heavy-duty models available, with a more even distribution across buses, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks.

In Europe, truck OEMs are expanding their electric heavy-duty truck line-ups for regional-haul applications (<400 km), and improving performances for long-haul trucks amid increasing electric sales. In 2024, Volvo launched its latest electric truck, FH Electric, offering a range of 600 km, similar to the range offered by Scania’s latest electric truck model. On the other hand, OEMs such as Renault are targeting urban logistics.

Electric heavy-duty models are also becoming available in emerging markets. BAIC Foton has an electric truck on the market in Argentina, and German truck manufacturer TRATON has been producing their electric “e-Delivery” truck in Brazil since 2021 under the Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus brand. In 2024, BYD licensed Rêver to build electric buses and trucks based on BYD technologies in Thailand.

Falling battery prices have been a key driver of growth in electric trucks. Since 2020, battery prices1 for commercial vehicles have dropped by 30%, enabling manufacturers to either extend vehicle range without increasing costs, or reduce costs to narrow the price gap between diesel and electric trucks. Between 2020 and 2024, the price of medium-duty electric truck battery packs increased only slightly, by almost 15%, despite battery size increasing by more than 60%. For heavy-duty trucks, battery pack size increased by around 70% between 2020 and 2024, but falling battery prices meant the rise in battery pack costs per vehicle was limited to less than 20% over the same period. Strategic partnerships between battery and commercial vehicle manufacturers, such as the agreement between CATL and FAW, seek to deliver even more affordable electric truck models through a more integrated supply chain.

For electric trucks to reach mass adoption, the total cost of owning an electric truck must be able to compete with the cost of owning a traditional diesel truck. Commercial vehicle owners and operators are typically more sensitive to the total cost of ownership (TCO) than personal car buyers, though higher upfront purchase costs can, of course, still present a hurdle.

The TCO of a vehicle depends on how the vehicle is used, and on the capital, energy and labour costs, all of which vary by region. Long-haul, heavy-duty trucks are often considered one of the hardest-to-electrify vehicle segments due to the need to balance battery size, range and payload constraints with charging requirements. In this section, we consider battery electric and fuel cell electric heavy-duty (HD) trucks, both of which have zero tailpipe emissions, and compare their TCO to diesel HD trucks in three major markets: China, the European Union and the United States.2 A daily driving distance of 500 km is assumed.

While the TCO is important for overall business profitability, the upfront costs can be particularly important to small business that may have less access to financing. Small businesses make up the vast majority of hauliers in the United States (95%) and Europe (90%), and more than half in China (less than 70%),3 where the haulage industry has been experiencing increasing consolidation.

Battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks are more expensive to purchase than conventional diesel trucks. This is mostly due to the batteries used in BEVs and the fuel cell stacks and hydrogen storage tanks in FCEVs being more expensive than equivalent diesel ICEV technologies. Today, for a truck with an 800 kWh battery (500 km range), the battery represents almost half of the upfront cost of a battery electric truck, and this is expected to fall to around 35% in 2030. For an FCEV, the battery, fuel cell system and hydrogen storage tank represent around half of the upfront cost today and this is not expected to change in 2030.

The costs of batteries, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage tanks are expected to fall thanks to greater economies of scale and manufacturing learnings, driving down the capital costs of both BEVs and FCEVs. In the next 5 years, the purchase price of a battery electric HD truck could fall by around 15-35%, depending on the region. That of a fuel cell HD truck could fall 20-25%. However, both are expected to remain more expensive than diesel ICE trucks at the point of purchase.

Purchase prices vary by region, and are lowest in China, primarily due to lower manufacturing and battery costs. Although the absolute price difference between battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks versus diesel equivalents is smallest in China, the low cost of diesel trucks means it has the largest relative price differences, at almost three (for battery electric) and four (for fuel cell electric) times the equivalent diesel price. The United States has the highest prices overall, while Europe enjoys both lower-cost diesel and zero-emissions trucks. Although not a like-for-like comparison, real-world price data shows that the premium for a zero-emissions truck was around USD 60 000 higher in the United States than in Europe in 2024, demonstrating the difficulties the United States is facing in achieving price competitiveness.

Fuel and infrastructure costs can make up a large share of the TCO for a heavy-duty truck. This is expected to remain the case into the future: over the next 5 years, vehicle efficiencies will likely improve by just 2-5%, meaning the levelised cost of fuel will remain a key component of TCO, especially for trucks with high daily driving distances. However, battery electric trucks are about 55% more energy-efficient than diesel heavy-duty trucks of the same size, while fuel cell electric trucks are about 30% more efficient. As such, based on 2024 fuel prices, the direct fuel costs associated with operating a battery electric heavy-duty truck are almost 70% lower than the diesel equivalent in China, and about one-third lower in the European Union and the United States.

However, unlike diesel, both BEVs and FCEVs require the buildout of new, relatively expensive infrastructure, which adds to the fuel costs. Further, the levelised cost of both EV chargers and hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs) is highly affected by utilisation rates. Overall, truck charging infrastructure could reach even higher levels of utilisation than LDV chargers, given that logistics operations are typically planned according to a predetermined schedule. Increasing the utilisation rate of an EV charger from 5% to 30% lowers the levelised infrastructure cost per kWh by about 80%, which would cut the overall fuel cost per kilometre by half based on 2024 prices. Increasing utilisation of en route chargers even further is possible, but may require solutions such as adaptive route planning.

While a single HRS is more costly to build than a charging point, it can serve a large number of trucks daily without the local grid impacts of high-powered chargers. As the utilisation rises from 30% to 80%, the hydrogen cost premium for infrastructure investment payment drops by nearly 60%, resulting in a 25% drop in overall fuel cost per kilometre. However, even at higher utilisation rates, such as for captive fleets (i.e. that are owned by the operators and return to depot) or on busy public routes, the energy plus infrastructure cost per kilometre remains about 5% higher than EV charging at low utilisation rates, and double the cost of EV charging at high utilisation rates.

For every USD 1 million spent on infrastructure, a highly utilised 350 kW charger covers more than twice as many vehicle kilometres as a highly utilised HRS. In addition, HRSs may present a greater barrier to entry, as they cannot be easily phased in gradually: an investment in HRSs must be accompanied by a large investment in FCEVs to avoid prohibitive per-vehicle fuel and infrastructure costs. On the other hand, chargers can be built modularly and more easily scaled as the fleet grows, beginning with depot charging, with en route high-powered charging following later to enable a greater share of journeys to be electrified.

Policies such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, or China’s multiple cross-cutting policies promote reductions in emissions associated with electricity and hydrogen production, but can also impact the future fuel costs. A smaller share of electrolysis projects reached final investment decision between October 2024 and October 2023 when compared to the previous 12 months, potentially constraining the supply of low-emissions hydrogen, which is more expensive than the fossil-fuel derived hydrogen predominantly used today. Meanwhile, low-cost solar and wind are driving down electricity grid emissions and can reduce electricity prices over time. However, further advances in electricity storage, smart charging and grid integration are needed to compensate for the intermittency of wind and solar and increase the benefits offered by electric trucks, requiring substantial investment.

For a diesel HD truck that travels an average 500 km per day, the truck capital cost represents only around 10% of the TCO across China, Europe and the United States. That means that outside of relatively fixed costs such as driver costs, insurance and maintenance, diesel fuel costs dominate the TCO. In comparison, for an 800 kWh battery electric truck, the cost of the truck represents about 20-25% of the TCO, demonstrating the potential trade-off between high upfront costs and lower running costs. For battery electric trucks, energy costs account for around 15-25% of the TCO, and for fuel cell trucks they account for 15-35%, across the three regions examined. For BEVs, more than 10% of the TCO can be attributed to charging infrastructure in Europe and the United States, while in China, this share is reduced to around 3%, thanks to lower industrial land costs as well as lower capital costs. The refuelling infrastructure for fuel cell trucks has higher costs, representing nearly 10% of the TCO in China and more than 15% in Europe and the United States.

In terms of operations, regulations on truck driver rest periods can play a role in determining the cost of the “dwell” time for recharging electric truck batteries. The time associated with charging is often considered to be a barrier to the adoption of battery electric trucks for long-haul applications as it can potentially disrupt operations, especially in very long-haul applications. This consideration is factored into the TCO calculation by adding the additional labour cost for the truck driver. In the European Union, drivers are required to take a 45-minute break every 4.5 hours. In the United States, a driver is not permitted to drive for more than 8 hours without a 30-minute break. In China, drivers are required to take a break every 4 hours, generally 20 minutes. As such, driving regulations can influence the TCO, and making use of rest periods for charging can make battery electric trucks more or less cost-competitive with diesel trucks. Based on a 500 km daily route and current regulations, an extra 15 (European Union), 30 (United States), and 40 minutes (China) would be needed in addition to the driver rest period in order to charge the battery electric HD truck sufficiently.4 The net cost associated with dwell time represents a trade-off between the fuel and labour costs, and as such may make more economic sense in China, where diesel is more expensive than in other regions, and labour and electricity less expensive. In contrast, in the United States, lower costs for diesel and higher labour and electricity costs can make it more difficult to justify.

Charger power is also key in calculating this trade-off. A 350 kW charger, as used in the base case, can provide 200 km of range in around 1 hour, while a 1 MW charger could provide the same in about 20 minutes, potentially eliminating the dwell cost.5 Destination charging, particularly where drivers must wait for loading and unloading, could also greatly reduce the dwell time.

The impact on payload is another consideration for many hauliers. In the United States, 18% of trucks operate close to the general maximum gross vehicle weight, with a further 7% operating above the limit, meaning they could be impacted by the additional weight of either a fuel cell or battery electric truck compared to diesel. Derogations exist in the United States (907 kg) and the European Union (2 000 kg) to help offset the impact of the additional weight. A proposal from the European Commission to further increase this to 4 000 kg could eliminate the disadvantage relative to diesel trucks, but could also marginally increase road maintenance costs.6 In China, industry stakeholders have also mooted increasing the weight limits as a means of making alternatively fuelled vehicles more competitive. These potential impacts are considered in the sensitivity case of the TCO.

In China, the TCO of battery electric HD trucks is already lower than that of diesel trucks in a number of applications. This reflects the lower cost of EV batteries in China, as well as the gap in fuel costs, as electricity already costs 65% less than diesel per kilometre. As such, energy costs for battery electric trucks are over 50% lower per kilometre compared to diesel trucks. Fuel cell trucks remained around 35% more expensive than diesel trucks in China in 2024, largely because of the higher infrastructure and fuel costs for hydrogen.

In the United States, higher electricity and infrastructure costs than Europe or China mean that the TCO of a diesel truck is almost 20% cheaper than that of a battery electric truck, though higher charger utilisation rates could reverse this by 2030. Compared to the European Union, US regulations on driver rest periods and maximum gross vehicle weight further hamper the uptake of zero-emissions trucks. However, in the coming years, the TCO of battery and fuel cell electric trucks is expected to fall due to improvements in infrastructure utilisation and costs, as well as further cost reductions for batteries and fuel cells. In contrast, diesel electric trucks are expected to become more expensive due to more stringent pollutant emissions regulation.

In all three markets, fuel cell trucks remain more expensive than battery electric trucks up to 2030, while continued development of high-powered charging – especially megawatt charging – reduces or eliminates the refuelling time advantage offered by FCEVs compared to BEVs. Increased utilisation of HRSs could result in further reductions to the TCO of fuel cell electric trucks, but battery electric trucks will remain cheaper to operate. For fuel cell electric trucks to become more competitive, substantial reductions in the capital costs of the truck and infrastructure, as well as lower fuel costs, will be necessary.

In 2030, the TCO of battery electric trucks is more competitive than diesel trucks in both China and the European Union. The gap also narrows substantially in the United States, achieving parity around 2030. Incentives such as grants towards the purchase of trucks, chargers, or HRSs, or differentiated taxes and charges could bring this date even closer, or indeed allow TCO parity to be achieved today in applications particularly suited to electrification.